Susceptible exposed infectious recovered-machine learning for COVID-19 prediction in Saudi Arabia

Susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) is among the epidemiological models used in forecasting the spread of disease in large populations. SEIR is a fitting model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread prediction. Somehow, in its original form, SEIR could not measure the impact of lockdowns. So, in the SEIR equations system utilized in this study, a variable was included to evaluate the impact of varying levels of social distance on the transmission of COVID-19. Additionally, we applied artificial intelligence utilizing the deep neural network machine learning (ML) technique. On the initial spread data for Saudi Arabia that were available up to June 25th, 2021, this improved SEIR model was used. The study shows possible infection to around 3.1 million persons without lockdown in Saudi Arabia at the peak of spread, which lasts for about 3 months beginning from the lockdown date (March 21st). On the other hand, the Kingdom's current partial lockdown policy was estimated to cut the estimated number of infections to 0.5 million over nine months. The data shows that stricter lockdowns may successfully flatten the COVID-19 graph curve in Saudi Arabia. We successfully predicted the COVID-19 epidemic's peaks and sizes using our modified deep neural network (DNN) and SEIR model. © 2023 Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science. All rights reserved.

An institutional analysis of the risk management process during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from an emerging market

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the institutional changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic on the Bahraini insurance sector. This study also examines how those changes affected the risk management practices. Design/methodology/approach: This study deploys a qualitative methodology with a case study design. The data are collected from multiple sources such as semi-structured interviews, documents and website analyses. Findings: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an institutional change in the Bahraini insurance sector. Pre-COVID-19, the professional logic was the dominant institutional logic. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic and its related uncertainties made the economic logic the most dominant logic. Accordingly, risk officers are currently responding to the crisis by being more risk-averse than risk managers. This study presents an inclusive institutional understanding of risk management as informed by the professional logic and socio-political and economic logics. Practical implications: This study has implications for regulators and insurance customers by giving a snapshot of how insurers' risk officers respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, which can help envisage their plans and actions. Originality/value: This study contributes to risk management and institutional logics literature by illustrating how changes in risk management practices in emerging markets are an operational manifestation of sustaining profits and maintaining the positions of risk officers. This extends the risk management literature by bringing early evidence from an emerging market regarding risk officers' behaviours and control plans during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, this study extends the institutional logics literature by exploring the micro-level impacts of logics in an emerging insurance market. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

An institutional analysis of the risk management process during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from an emerging market

Purpose This study aims to investigate the institutional changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic on the Bahraini insurance sector. This study also examines how those changes affected the risk management practices. Design/methodology/approach This study deploys a qualitative methodology with a case study design. The data are collected from multiple sources such as semi-structured interviews, documents and website analyses. Findings The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an institutional change in the Bahraini insurance sector. Pre-COVID-19, the professional logic was the dominant institutional logic. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic and its related uncertainties made the economic logic the most dominant logic. Accordingly, risk officers are currently responding to the crisis by being more risk-averse than risk managers. This study presents an inclusive institutional understanding of risk management as informed by the professional logic and socio-political and economic logics. Practical implications This study has implications for regulators and insurance customers by giving a snapshot of how insurers' risk officers respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, which can help envisage their plans and actions. Originality/value This study contributes to risk management and institutional logics literature by illustrating how changes in risk management practices in emerging markets are an operational manifestation of sustaining profits and maintaining the positions of risk officers. This extends the risk management literature by bringing early evidence from an emerging market regarding risk officers' behaviours and control plans during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, this study extends the institutional logics literature by exploring the micro-level impacts of logics in an emerging insurance market.

Telework operationalization through internal CSR, governmentality and accountability during the Covid-19: evidence from a developing country

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of Covid-19 on transforming accountability, corporate social responsibility (CSR) and office operation and control. This paper explains how unleashing the rationality of health and safety along with internal CSR made the transformation to telework successfully operable in a periphery of a western multinational corporation. Design/methodology/approach The study draws upon the theories of governmentality and social accountability. It adopts an interpretative qualitative research approach and uses the case study method. Data were collected from one of the biggest private sector telecommunication companies in Egypt. Findings This study finds that Covid-19 and its related health and safety discourse represented a good rationale for the western home office to accelerate the initiation of its office transformation plan to reach full working from home policy in a less developed country peripheral subsidiary. Under the guise of CSR, the company spent a large budget to make this transformation quickly operable, while its Egyptian subsidiary is financially distressed. Moreover, the company achieved its objectives from this new rationality as employees currently prefer the telework mode which reduces the company costs in the long run. Practical implications The study provides practitioners with evidence and practicable knowledge regarding the impact of Covid-19 on office reconfiguration and the ways used to achieve this in the Egyptian telecommunication sector. Originality/value The current study extends the governmentality literature by illustrating that transformation to telework in emerging markets is an operational manifestation of cost reduction and efficiency rationality under the guise of CSR. Moreover, it extends the office transformation literature by bringing early evidence regarding office transition plans during COVID-19 in an emerging market.

Resilience and Agility as Indispensable Conditions for Sustaining Viable Supply Chain during Pandemics: The Case of Bahrain

The concern of this paper is exploratory. It investigates how the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic raise many risks in the global supply chain resilience and viability. Through archival research we were able to depict how COVID-19 impacted the global supply chain in general and kingdom of Bahrain in specific. We concluded that kingdom of Bahrain was successful in terms of agility and resilience of its supply chain. However, there is a need for more case studies that concentrate on the real mundane practices related to this resilience, and more research is needed to sustain this viability in the Bahraini supply chain. The novelty of this research is the creation of a holistic review of the impact of COVID-19 on supply chain management. Through explaining the resilience, agility, sustainability and viability of supply chains and the questions raised in this emerging market this paper could be a valuable resource for future researchers to seek solutions to supply chain management in pandemic and epidemic times. This work would also be on interest to practitioners from the GCC and other less developed countries in their thinking about facing the pandemic risks and building viable sustainable supply chains. © 2020 IEEE.